With 40 years just turned, Roger Federer is still in trouble with a right knee injury that will lead to a new operation. In this context, the US Open, fourth and last Grand Slam of 2021 is lost, and there are some combinations of results that can be given so that the Swiss, current No. 9 in the ranking, leaves the Top 10 after that tournament.
Now, what must happen at the US Open for Federer to emerge from the select batch of the ATP Top 10? There are many options, but in turn the Swiss maintains a good advantage over many of the closest pursuers in the standings.
Federer was one of the most benefited from the “freeze” of the world ranking by Covid-19, since he did not play an official match for 13 months and, despite that, he remained in the Top 5 of the ATP ranking. He performed little this season and continues in the elite, being the 9th on the list, but after announcing that he will undergo a new knee operation, he will miss the rest of 2021 and it is still unknown when he will return to the courts.
In this context, the US Open, with 2,000 points for the champion and 1,200 for the finalist, will be the first major championship where there is a chance that he will drop from the Top 10. In fact, the Swiss has been there without interruptions since the end of January 2017 , when he returned after a six-month stoppage due to injury and won the Australian Open, since he had left the aforementioned lot.
Federer is then ranked No. 9 in the world, with 4,125 points, and will give up 360 points from the quarterfinals he reached in 2019 at the US Open, when he lost to the Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov. Therefore, it will be left with 3,765. He did not play the US Open 2020, in the middle of the pandemic.
This is how the players behind Federer appear:
10 Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian has 3,580 and defends 360 quarter-final points. It will happen if he is champion or even being a finalist or semifinalist. He is in the upper half of the table, with Serbian Novak Djokovic, No. 1 ATP, and rising Polish Hubert Hurkacz, who is also fighting for the Top 10.
11 Casper Ruud. The Norwegian adds 3,455 and revalidates 90 of the third round. He will overtake the Swiss reaching the quarterfinals. It can be measured in the round of 16 with Diego Schwartzman or John Isner.
12 ° Pablo Carreño Busta. The Spaniard has 3,325 points and defends 720 from last year’s semifinals, when he advanced to the quarterfinals due to the disqualification of Djokovic and defeated Shapovalov. He lost to Zverev in five sets and after going 2-0 in sets. He could face Shapovalov in the round of 16. He will surpass Federer if he wins the title or is a finalist.
13 Hubert Hurkacz. The Pole has 3,128 and barely revalidates the second round from a year ago. It will reach him being a semifinalist to overcome Federer.
14th Diego Schwartzman. The Argentine has 2,980 units and does not defend, since he fell in last year’s debut. You must be at least a finalist to be able to overcome it.
Even further behind they appear: 15th, the Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, with 2,828; 16th, the Italian Jannick Sinner, with 2,750; 17th, the Australian Alex de Miñaur, with 2,555; 18th, the Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, with 2,511; 19 °, the Chilean Cristian Garin, with 2,510; 20th, Frenchman Gael Monfils, with 2,503; 21st, the Spanish Roberto Bautista Agut, with 2,405; 22nd, the American John Isner, with 2,238; 23rd, the Italian Lorenzo Sonego, with 2,227; 24th, the Russian Aslan Karatsev, with 2,224, and 25th, the American Reilly Opelka, with 2,206.
Likewise, everything is related to the painting of each one. In fact, one between De Miñaur and Karatsev may be Djokovic’s rival in the round of 16. In that key, Hurkacz and Sonego could run into the third wheel, as can happen with Monfils versus Sinner. So there are chances that more than one will pass Federer after playing the US Open, but many can eliminate each other along the way.
Once the first week is over, with the key defined for the round of 16, the whole picture will be much clearer, with some already out of the race and others doing math with the calculator. Without a doubt…