The bettor’s guide to Week 4 NFL games


0
The bettor's guide to Week 4 NFL games

The history of the young NFL season has been the success of the underprivileged. Last week, the underprivileged they finished 9-7 against the line (ATS for its acronym in English), the third consecutive week that they had profitable results. In general, underprivileged they are 30-18 ATS this season, the best brand after three weeks since 2002. This week, there are several underprivileged significant. The Houston Texans are underprivileged by 17.5 points in his visit to the Buffalo bills, the broadest line of the entire campaign.

For their part New England Patriots are underprivileged by six points before Tom brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That number almost equals the highest number of points (seven) with which New england has been underprivileged at home for the past 20 seasons. The last time New england was disadvantaged by a higher figure was in 2001, the first campaign of Brady.

Mac Jones he hopes to end the troubled trend for rookie quarterbacks. The five first-year quarterbacks who have played are 1-10 straight and ATS, the only victory of the Patriots from Jones Over the New York Jets by Zach Wilson.

Talking about the Jets, they are one of three teams that still do not cover any lines, along with Washington and, surprisingly, Kansas city chiefs, which are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games including the playoffs.

Also, three teams have gone 3-0 ATS this season, and two of them will face off this week as the Carolina panthers visit the Dallas cowboys. Carolina this 8-1 ATS on the road under the direction of head coach Matt Rhule.

You can enjoy the NFL on Star +, subscribe here.

Overall NFL trends

  • underprivileged: 9-7 ATS, 7-9 direct in Week 3; 30-18 ATS, 21-27 direct this season.

  • Visitors: 8-8 ATS, 8-8 direct in Week 3; 27-21 ATS; 24-24 direct this season.

  • Low: 11-5 in Week 3; 28-20 this season.

Superlatives

  • Teams 3-0 ATS: Denver, Carolina, Dallas.

  • Teams 0-3 ATS: Kansas city, Washington, New York Jets.

  • Teams 3-0 in registrations: Tampa bay, Los Angeles Rams.

  • Teams 3-0 in casualties (7): Carolina, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, New england, Denver, Pittsburgh, New orleans.

  • Kansas city gone 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games going back to last season, including the playoffs.

  • Kansas city they have covered just one of their last 10 games as a favorite going back to last season.

  • Kansas city is 42-22-1 ATS as a visitor under Andy Reid.

  • Kansas city is one of three teams this season that has not covered a game against the line (Washington and New York Jets).

  • Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS as a disadvantaged local since the beginning of last season. Philadelphia it is also 4-0 ATS as a home underdog by at least six points since the start of last season.

  • Kansas city gone 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games going back to last season, including the playoffs. During that span, he has won a game by more than six points.


  • Washington is one of three teams this season that has not covered a game against the line (Kansas city and New York Jets).

  • Since the start of the 2019 season, Washington is 5-16-1 ATS after a direct loss, the worst coverage percentage in that situation during that span.

  • Matt Ryan is 14-6 ATS as a disadvantaged local.


  • The matches of Buffalo they have finished 14-7-1 on the highs since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

  • Buffalo is 13-6 ATS since the start of last season, tied with Miami for the best percentage of coverage in the NFL during that period.

  • Buffalo they have covered six of their last seven games as a favorite.

  • If the line closes above 17, it would be just the seventh line with at least 17.5 points between Weeks 1 and 4 in the last 40 seasons (first since 2019). They are 4-2 ATS in the previous six.

  • Buffalo was favorite by 17 points in Week 7 of 2019 (won by 10 against Miami). Before that, Buffalo he hadn’t been a favorite by at least 15 points since 1992.


  • Rookie quarterbacks finished 0-4 ATS in Week 3. They are 0-9 ATS this season when they don’t face another rookie quarterback.

  • Casualties are 14-6 under head coach Matt Nagy following a direct score loss.

  • Detroit he’s 12-7 up since the start of last season.

  • Jared Goff is 2-1 ATS as holder in Detroit after finishing 35-32-2 ATS on The Angels.


  • Carolina is 8-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, the best percentage of road coverage in the NFL in that span.

  • Carolina he has covered nine of his last 11 games as an underdog.

  • Carolina and Dallas are two of three teams in the NFL that are undefeated ATS this season (Denver). They are two of seven teams to see their three games end in casualties.

  • Dak Prescott is 3-5 ATS as a starter since the beginning of last season. Six of his eight starts ended high.

  • Dallas is 1-5 ATS as a local favorite since the beginning of last season. Dallas is also 2-6 ATS as a favorite during that same period of time.


  • Miami is 13-6 ATS since the start of last season, tied with Buffalo with the best coverage percentage in the NFL in that span.

  • Since the beginning of last season, Miami is 6-0 ATS after a direct defeat.

  • Miami is 4-0 ATS as a local favorite since the start of last season, tied for the best coverage percentage in the NFL in that span.

  • Casualties are 26-17 in Carson Wentz’s starts since 2018, including the playoffs.


  • Minnesota is 15-4 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2012 season, the second-best percentage of coverage in the NFL in that span.

  • Baker Mayfield is 2-7 ATS as a favorite visitor.

  • Mike Zimmer is 8-3 ATS as a disadvantaged local.


  • New York he’s 14-4-1 on the downs since the start of last season, the highest percentage down in the NFL.

  • New orleans they are 2-0 direct as underdog and 0-1 direct as favorite with all games decided by at least 14 points. The matches of New orleans they finished an average of 26.2 points from the line, the third-highest mark after three games in the last 20 seasons.

  • New York is 17-4 ATS as a disadvantaged visitor since the start of the 2018 season. Those are three more coverages ATS as an underdog than any other NFL team in that span.

  • Jameis Winston has never been favored by eight or more points in his career. He has been a favorite for a touchdown once in his career and covered in 2017 with Tampa bay. He’s 11-10 straight into his career as a favorite.

  • Sean Payton is 34-28 ATS as a favorite visitor.


  • New York is 6-13 ATS since the start of last season, the worst coverage percentage in the NFL in that span.

  • Tennessee he’s gone 13-5-1 to the highs since the start of last season. The talls are 22-6-1 in the regular season on Ryan Tannehill’s starts since joining the team.

  • New York they have been underdog by a home touchdown seven times since the start of last season, two more than any other team in that span.


  • Arizona they haven’t had a road game finish high since the start of last season (0-9-1 high). Arizona it is the only team in the NFL to have no high games in that span. All other teams have gone high at least twice.

  • Sean McVay is 8-0 ATS against Arizona.

  • Sean McVay is 38-27-2 ATS in his career (regular season).

  • The Angels has covered eight consecutive games against Arizona.

  • The Angels is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.

  • Since the start of the 2019 season, The Angels is 19-7 ATS against NFC West teams.


  • Since the start of the 2018 season, Seattle is 14-7-2 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3.

  • Seattle they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight road games.

  • Kyle Shanahan is 8-18-2 ATS as favorite and 3-13-2 ATS as a local favorite since he became head coach of the 49ers.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite since he became the holder of the 49ers.

  • San Francisco has failed to cover as a local favorite since the start of last season (0-6 ATS).


  • Denver it was the only team in the NFL last season to be underdog in every game. He has now been a favorite in all four of his games this season. Since 2017, Denver is 9-14-2 ATS as a favorite.

  • Teddy Bridgewater is 37-13 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 15-7 ATS as a favorite.

  • Denver is one of three teams that are undefeated ATS this season with Dallas and Carolina.

  • Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3.

  • Lamar Jackson is 13-5-2 ATS in his away career. Nevertheless, Baltimore is 0-2 ATS as a visitor this season.


  • Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as underprivileged since the start of the 2018 season.

  • Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger meet for just the second time in the regular season. Rodgers covered in their only duel.

  • Rodgers is 46-35-1 ATS as a favorite by six or more career points.

  • Roethlisberger is underdog by six or more points for just the ninth time in his career (3-4-1 ATS). He has played 234 regular season games as a professional.

  • Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in October since the start of the 2018 season, the best percentage of coverage in October in that span.


  • Tom brady is 202-138-7 ATS in his career, including the playoffs (.594).

  • Brady is 36-22-1 ATS as a road favorite by six or more career points.

  • Tampa bay covered eight of their last 12 games going back to last season, including the playoffs.

  • Since Brady came to Tampa bay, the team is 5-0 ATS after a direct defeat.

  • This is only the nineteenth time that New england he has been an underdog at home since 2000, the fewest for any team in the NFL. New england is 14-4 ATS in the previous 18 games.

“Monday Night Football”

  • Las Vegas he’s 15-4 at the top since the start of last season, the highest percentage of hires in the NFL.

  • The Angels is 5-15-1 ATS as a local favorite since the start of the 2018 season.

  • Justin Herbert is 3-5 ATS as a favorite local in his career.

  • Derek Carr is 24-18 ATS as a career disadvantaged visitor, including 8-4 ATS in that position since the start of the 2019 campaign.

  • Derek Carr is 6-1 ATS in matches of “Monday Night Football”.


What's Your Reaction?

hate hate
0
hate
confused confused
0
confused
fail fail
0
fail
fun fun
0
fun
geeky geeky
0
geeky
love love
0
love
lol lol
0
lol
omg omg
0
omg
win win
0
win