We use our Hall of Fame projections model to estimate the probabilities that each of the three stages of Brady’s career will deserve such recognition on its own.
This model is trained using the statistical records of other eligible quarterbacks who played in the modern era, as well as indicating whether they were inducted into the Hall of Fame or not. We chose the statistics we consider to be the best clues to predict a hotline, including years of service, total wins, total yards, yards per attempt, number of All-Pro picks, number of Pro Bowl selections, number of Super Bowls appearances and wins. and number of Super Bowl Most Valuable awards. The statistics of passes and total wins are adjusted according to the era.
This model has correctly predicted 23 of the 24 quarterback exaltations of the modern era, with Ken Stabler being the only exception.