Divisional playoff rivalry: Bills start as favorites

Buffalo are favorites against New England for the fourth time in their last five meetings after being favored in just one game in their previous 33 meetings.

  • Patriots: They won the only precedent against the Bills in the postseason in 1963 (both belonged to the AFL).

  • Patriots: 1-3 on the road in Wild Card Round. The victory was on 28-Dec-195 over Jets by 26-14.

  • Mac Jones (NE): Rookie QBs are 2-8 in the postseason since 2010. Both wins came against other rookie QBs.

  • Mac Jones (NE): Rookie QBs are 0-3 in the postseason vs teams that were #1 on defense in points or yards.

  • Bill Belichick (NE): 3-7 as a HC in the postseason vs. teams that previously beat him in the regular season (5 straight losses).

  • Bills: 2-0 at home in postseason under Sean McDermott (0-3 on the road).

  • Bills: 11-1 at home in the postseason during the Super Bowl era. The loss was against the Jaguars on Dec-28-1996 by 30-27.

  • Bills: For 1st. time in their history, they finished as the league’s #1 defense in PPG (17.0). They were also the best in yards (272.8).

  • Stefon Diggs (BUF): His 230 receptions are the most by a Bills player in his first 2 seasons with the team.

  • Josh Allen (BUF): Became 1st. player in history with at least 4,000 passing yards (4,407) and 750 rushing yards (763) in a season.

Gambler’s Guide

  • New England went 10-7 against the line this season (9-8 overs). Buffalo 9-6-2 (low 9-8).

  • Bill Belichick is 55-29-1 against the line when he’s an underdog with the Patriots, including in the playoffs. Belichick is also 5-2 against the line as an underdog against Buffalo.

  • Bill Belichick is 32-18 against the line with less than six days to prepare as New England’s head coach, including the playoffs. He is 13-2 at that position since 2016, though he lost as a favorite in his last playoff game in that same situation (2019 Wild Card game against Tennessee).

  • New England had a coverage margin of +6.18 points per game this season, the best mark in the NFL this season.

  • New England is 8-3 against the line in its last 11 games and 6-2 against the line in its last eight games as a favorite.

  • Buffalo are favorites against New England for the fourth time in their last five meetings after being favored in just one game in their previous 33 meetings.

  • Buffalo is 3-0-1 against the line in its last four games.

  • Rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 in the postseason since 2010 (2-4 against the line). The last three rookie quarterbacks to reach the postseason were 0-3 against the line and outright (since 2016).

  • Since 2014, the underdogs are 7-0 against the line in divisional postseason rematches (5-2 outright).